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PM’s Visit to Ukraine – India’s Strategic Balancing Act

Context:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Ukraine on August 23, 2024, in a move widely interpreted as a diplomatic balancing act amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia. While not a direct peace initiative, the visit signified India’s intent to retain strategic relevance in global diplomacy, assert its neutral mediator status, and strengthen bilateral ties with Ukraine.

Key Highlights of the Visit:

1. Agricultural and Food Industry Cooperation:
   • India and Ukraine agreed to deepen collaboration in agriculture and food processing sectors.
   • Ukraine, once a major sunflower oil exporter to India, aims to resume food trade with India post-war.
2. Humanitarian Assistance:
   • India announced grant aid for community development projects to support Ukraine’s civil society recovery.
   • Aid includes medical, infrastructural, and educational support.
3. Cultural and Pharmaceutical Agreements:
   • Bilateral agreement signed on cooperation in cultural exchange and pharmaceutical standards.
   • Enhances Indian pharma exports and cultural outreach.
4. Health Diplomacy – BHISHM Cubes:
   • India gifted four BHISHM (Bharat Health Initiative for Sahyog Hita & Maitri) Cubes, containing essential medical supplies and equipment.
   • Represents India’s evolving “One World, One Health” commitment.

India–Ukraine Bilateral Relations:

India’s Stand on the Ukraine-Russia Conflict:

1. Advocates dialogue and diplomacy over war.
2. India is “not neutral” but on the side of peace.
3. Avoids direct criticism of Russia to maintain strategic relations.
4. Highlights the UN Charter and territorial integrity.
5. Concerned with war’s economic impact on Global South.
6. India plays a constructive, cautious role in international forums.

India’s Role as a Potential Mediator:

Why India is Considered a Credible Mediator:

• Enjoys friendly relations with both Russia and Ukraine.
• Helped avert attacks (e.g., Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant).
• Active in diplomatic talks over Black Sea grain shipments.
• Suggested by Mexico as a key mediator alongside the Pope and UN Secretary-General.
• India’s mediation can aid its case for UNSC permanent membership.

Challenges in India’s Mediation Role:

1. Complex Diplomatic Terrain:
   • Balancing ties with Russia–Europe–Ukraine triad.
   • Understanding subtle geopolitical alliances and enmities.
2. Diplomatic Skills:
   • Requires sharp negotiation in both bilateral and multilateral forums.
3. Risk Management:
   • While India plays regional stabilizer (e.g., Sri Lanka, Maldives), this war is a far larger geopolitical crisis.
4. Strategic Limitations:
   • India cannot afford to alienate Russia, a key defence and energy partner.
   • Yet, cannot align too closely, especially amid Russia–China proximity.
5. Dependence on Russia:
   • Russia supplies critical military tech and raw materials.
   • Shared projects include Kudankulam Nuclear Plant, Gaganyaan, and oil imports.

Conclusion:

• Modi’s visit reflects India’s careful diplomatic positioning in a divided world.
• India balances moral support for peace, humanitarian aid, and national interest.
• The war enters a new phase, where India may leverage its global credibility and strategic autonomy to shape outcomes.
• As India aspires for global leadership, including UNSC reform, its role in managing crises like Ukraine becomes crucial.